SAGE Record 089, Gruenwald
Gruenwald, R., 2022, The hydrocarbon potential of offshore Libya in a regional perspective: Past 10 year’s discoveries, movers, and laggards: SAGE Record 089, 1 p. + supplemental material, <http://sagetech.org/sage_record_089_gruenwald/>. Oral presentation at SAGE/ESSL BIGEC 2022, 30 Aug.–01 Sept. 2022, Benghazi, Libya, and Online.
The Hydrocarbon Potential of Offshore Libya in a Regional Perspective: Past 10 Year's Discoveries, Movers, and Laggards
Robert Gruenwald (MS Energy International Solutions S.R.L., Cluj, Romania)
In 2010, BP had finalized the largest ever offshore 31,000 sq km 3D acquisition offshore Libya, when Force Majeure had been declared since 21st February 2011 and later was lifted effective by 15th May 2012. Since then, exploration of the underexplored offshore area with a continuation of the Mesozoic-Tertiary Sirte Basin graben system into the North African offshore shelf has stalled. The area contains large structures that are related to intense Miocene-Pliocene wrench-related inversion. Trap integrity is thus a key uncertainty. Cretaceous primary source rocks are expected to be in the gas-generating window in the deep grabens, suggesting that traps contain mostly gas-condensate. Due to its underexplored nature, the offshore area of Libya has attracted strong interest from foreign oil companies in past EPSA bid rounds. Following initial drilling disappointment in 2007 (Woodside well A1–36–2), Hess announced a 1 BBOE discovery with its A1–54/1 (Arous El Bahar) in Area 55 in 2009. Contractor production entitlement is poor and fiscal terms do not allow for much price upside. Most operators deferred drilling activity, due to the “Macondo effect” and civil unrest in Libya. In 2014, along with the oil price decline, global exploration budgets were slashed across all E&P companies. Activities were centered around commitment well drilling and a few successful high impact wells in the eastern Mediterranean as the 2015 +-30 TCF Zohr gas discovery by ENI offshore Egypt and the 2019 5–8 TCF XOM Glaucus gas discovery offshore Cyprus. The activity focus shifted to a safe business environment with attractive fiscal terms and large size, low risk opportunities. To reinstall trust and security and to attract investment in a once highly functional business environment, it would require a fundamental change of the current situation including a diligent observation and integration of the ongoing global energy transition as an additional challenge.